US Earthquake Resilience Needs Strengthening,Says New Report

A new National Research Council report presents a 20-year road map for increasing U.S. resilience to earthquakes, including a major earthquake that could strike a highly populated area. The report was mostly written prior to the March 11 earthquake in Japan, but the committee of experts who authored it noted that the Japanese experience is a reminder of the devastation that can occur even in a country acknowledged as a leader in implementing earthquake-resilience measures. In recent decades, destructive earthquakes in the U.S. have only been moderate to strong in size or have occurred in sparsely populated areas; the country has not suffered a truly devastating earthquake in more than a hundred years. Because of this, the committee expressed concern that many people have been lulled into a false sense of security that the nation already is earthquake resilient. The committee highlighted the results of a recent earthquake-scenario exercise in Los Angeles, which indicated that a magnitude-7.8 earthquake would result in staggering losses, and noted the lack of disaster resilience demonstrated by Hurricane Katrina.

The report identifies an 18-task road map for implementing the strategic plan adopted by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), which would make the nation earthquake resilient. Established by Congress in 1977, the multiagency program is led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology and includes the Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Science Foundation, and U.S. Geological Survey.

The report endorses NEHRP's 2008 strategic plan and stresses that the road map tasks are required to develop the nation's capacity to maintain important community functions and recover quickly following damaging earthquakes. The committee also emphasized that a dedicated and strategic effort is needed to diffuse knowledge gained by the NEHRP into communities.

Funding for NEHRP totaled $129.7 million in 2009. The committee estimated that the cost for its earthquake-resilience road map would be $306 million annually over the first five years.